Pair #2229

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 20432

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VAC26-JSPI

Will Jordan Spieth lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3343

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:01:55Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 3 of the Valspar Championship (not a major) has no logical connection to winning a PGA Tour major. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 1.73% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -2.55% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue