Pair #2228

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JSPI

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2647

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VAC26-JSPI

Will Jordan Spieth lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3343

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:01:55Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors has no logical connection to leading after Round 3 of the Valspar Championship, which is not a major. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -12.11% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -16.32% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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