Pair #2225

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VAC26-JSPI

Will Jordan Spieth lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3343

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jordan Spieth is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-JSPI

Valspar Championship: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11937

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jordan Spieth finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:01:36Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 does not require leading after Round 3, and leading after Round 3 does not guarantee a top 5 finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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