Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-VAC26-KHIR
Valspar Championship: Will Kensei Hirata finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Kensei Hirata
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1716
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Kensei Hirata finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VAC26-KHIR
Valspar Championship: Will Kensei Hirata finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Kensei Hirata
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 693
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Kensei Hirata finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:01:36Z
Reasoning: If Hirata finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0300
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A