Pair #222

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLEAST-26-WSH

Eastern Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLEAST
Entity: Washington Capitals
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 67600

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Washington Capitals wins the Eastern Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLMETROPOLITAN-26-WSH

Will Washington Capitals win the NHL Metropolitan Division?

Series: KXNHLMETROPOLITAN
Entity: Washington Capitals
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 3859

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Washington Capitals win the 2025-2026 NHL Metropolitan Division, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:04:00Z

Reasoning: Winning the Eastern Conference Finals does not require winning the Metropolitan Division (wild card teams can advance deep in playoffs). Winning the Metropolitan Division does not guarantee reaching the Conference Finals. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -11.06% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -15.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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