Pair #2216

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-MPAV

Valspar Championship: Will Matthieu Pavon finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matthieu Pavon
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2707

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthieu Pavon finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MPAV

Valspar Championship: Will Matthieu Pavon finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matthieu Pavon
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10453

YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.6500
Last: 0.3600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthieu Pavon finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:01:36Z

Reasoning: If Pavon finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20 as well. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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