Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-VAC26-MWAL
Valspar Championship: Will Matt Wallace finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matt Wallace
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7902
YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Matt Wallace finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MWAL
Valspar Championship: Will Matt Wallace finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matt Wallace
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 20956
YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Matt Wallace finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:01:19Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20. The reverse does not hold.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.3100
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A