Pair #221

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLEAST-26-WSH

Eastern Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLEAST
Entity: Washington Capitals
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 67600

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Washington Capitals wins the Eastern Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPLAYOFF-26-WSH

Will the Washington Capitals be one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers?

Series: KXNHLPLAYOFF
Entity: Washington Capitals
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 82228

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Washington Capitals are one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:04:00Z

Reasoning: Winning the Eastern Conference Finals requires having made the playoffs. So winning the East Finals implies being a playoff qualifier. The reverse is not true — making the playoffs does not mean reaching or winning the Conference Finals.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -11.06% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -15.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T11:38:40Z

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