Pair #2205

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-KYU

Valspar Championship: Will Kevin Yu finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Kevin Yu
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1754

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Kevin Yu finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-KYU

Valspar Championship: Will Kevin Yu finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Kevin Yu
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4212

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.4800
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Kevin Yu finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:01:19Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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