Pair #2203

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-ANOV

Valspar Championship: Will Andrew Novak finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Andrew Novak
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2509

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Andrew Novak finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-ANOV

Will Andrew Novak win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Andrew Novak
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 611159

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Andrew Novak wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:01:05Z

Reasoning: These are two completely different tournaments (Masters vs. Valspar Championship). Winning or placing in one has no logical bearing on placement in the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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