Pair #2202

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-ANOV

Valspar Championship: Will Andrew Novak finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Andrew Novak
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2509

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Andrew Novak finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-ANOV

Valspar Championship: Will Andrew Novak finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Andrew Novak
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 16349

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Andrew Novak finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:01:05Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 at the Valspar necessarily means finishing top 20. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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