Pair #22

Antecedent (implies)

KXATP1RANK-26JUN30-JSIN

Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Jun 30, 2026?

Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-06-30T16:00:00Z
Volume: 1495

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Jun 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (implied)

KXGOLFTENNISMAJORS-26-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner win more major tournaments in 2026?

Series: KXGOLFTENNISMAJORS
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-09-14T14:00:00Z
Volume: 566

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7900
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner wins more major tournaments than Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Bryson DeChambeau combined in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:50:46Z

Reasoning: Being #1 ranked on June 30 does not logically necessitate winning more majors than the golfers combined, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -58.74% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2900
Days to maturity: 105
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -62.94% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-03-17T10:14:27Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue