Pair #2198

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-MHUG

Valspar Championship: Will Mackenzie Hughes finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Mackenzie Hughes
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5000

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mackenzie Hughes finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MHUG

Valspar Championship: Will Mackenzie Hughes finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Mackenzie Hughes
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8650

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mackenzie Hughes finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:01:05Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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