Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-WSH
Will Washington Capitals win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: Washington Capitals
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 250305
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Washington Capitals win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLPLAYOFF-26-WSH
Will the Washington Capitals be one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers?
Series: KXNHLPLAYOFF
Entity: Washington Capitals
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 82228
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Washington Capitals are one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:04:00Z
Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup requires making the playoffs. If WSH wins the Cup, they necessarily qualified for the playoffs. The reverse is not true.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-11.06%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0100
Days to maturity:
31
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
-15.27%
BELOW HURDLE