Pair #2187

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VAC26-SIM

Will Sungjae Im lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6924

YES ask: 0.3900
NO ask: 0.6900
Last: 0.3900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sungjae Im is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-SIM

Will Sungjae Im win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2549493

YES ask: 0.4400
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sungjae Im wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:00:47Z

Reasoning: Winning the Valspar Championship does not require leading after Round 3 (a player could be behind after R3 and win in R4), and leading after R3 does not guarantee winning. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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