Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP5-VAC26-ADUM
Valspar Championship: Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Adrien Dumont De Chassart
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1055
YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.7900
Last: 0.2400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Adrien Dumont De Chassart finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VAC26-ADUM
Valspar Championship: Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Adrien Dumont De Chassart
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4512
YES ask: 0.8100
NO ask: 0.2400
Last: 0.8100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Adrien Dumont De Chassart finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:00:47Z
Reasoning: A top 5 finish is necessarily also a top 20 finish. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 5.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.6000
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A