Pair #2182

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-ADUM

Valspar Championship: Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Adrien Dumont De Chassart
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1055

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.7900
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adrien Dumont De Chassart finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-ADUM

Valspar Championship: Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Adrien Dumont De Chassart
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4512

YES ask: 0.8100
NO ask: 0.2400
Last: 0.8100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adrien Dumont De Chassart finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:00:47Z

Reasoning: A top 5 finish is necessarily also a top 20 finish. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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