Pair #2180

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-KVIL

Will Karl Vilips win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Karl Vilips
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 284

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Karl Vilips wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-KVIL

Valspar Championship: Will Karl Vilips finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Karl Vilips
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4920

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Karl Vilips finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:00:47Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is within the top 20. So a win necessitates a top 20 finish. A top 20 finish does not necessitate a win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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