Pair #218

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-WSH

Will Washington Capitals win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Washington Capitals
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 250305

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Washington Capitals win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLEAST-26-WSH

Eastern Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLEAST
Entity: Washington Capitals
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 67600

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Washington Capitals wins the Eastern Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:04:00Z

Reasoning: Washington is an Eastern Conference team. To win the Stanley Cup Finals, they must first win the Eastern Conference Finals. Winning the Cup necessitates winning the East Finals. The reverse is not true.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -11.40% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 30
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -15.62% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T09:31:52Z

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