Pair #2161

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-NSHI

Valspar Championship: Will Neal Shipley finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Neal Shipley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5461

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Neal Shipley finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-NSHI

Valspar Championship: Will Neal Shipley make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Neal Shipley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2399

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.6100
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Neal Shipley makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:05:31Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 requires making the cut. Making the cut does not imply a top 5 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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