Pair #2158

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-PKIZ

Valspar Championship: Will Patton Kizzire finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Patton Kizzire
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 438

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patton Kizzire finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-PKIZ

Valspar Championship: Will Patton Kizzire finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Patton Kizzire
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3276

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patton Kizzire finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:05:31Z

Reasoning: Top 10 finish necessarily falls within top 20. Top 20 does not imply top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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