Pair #2156

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-PNYH

Valspar Championship: Will Pontus Nyholm finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Pontus Nyholm
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 597

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Pontus Nyholm finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-PNYH

Valspar Championship: Will Pontus Nyholm make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Pontus Nyholm
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 550

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.4300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Pontus Nyholm makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:05:31Z

Reasoning: If Nyholm finishes top 10, he must have made the cut. But making the cut does not imply a top 10 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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