Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-VAC26-PNYH
Valspar Championship: Will Pontus Nyholm finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Pontus Nyholm
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 597
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Pontus Nyholm finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VAC26-PNYH
Valspar Championship: Will Pontus Nyholm finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Pontus Nyholm
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2337
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Pontus Nyholm finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:05:15Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20. Finishing top 20 does not necessarily mean finishing top 10.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0300
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A