Pair #2149

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-PNYH

Valspar Championship: Will Pontus Nyholm finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Pontus Nyholm
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2337

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Pontus Nyholm finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-PNYH

Valspar Championship: Will Pontus Nyholm make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Pontus Nyholm
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 550

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.4300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Pontus Nyholm makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:05:15Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 requires completing all rounds, which means making the cut. Making the cut does not imply finishing top 20.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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