Pair #2145

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-RHOE

Valspar Championship: Will Rico Hoey finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Rico Hoey
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4572

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rico Hoey finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-RHOE

Valspar Championship: Will Rico Hoey finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Rico Hoey
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 14173

YES ask: 0.5900
NO ask: 0.4400
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rico Hoey finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:05:15Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 20. Finishing top 20 does not necessarily mean finishing top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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