Pair #2143

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-ZBAU

Valspar Championship: Will Zachary Bauchou finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Zachary Bauchou
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 482

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Zachary Bauchou finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-ZBAU

Valspar Championship: Will Zachary Bauchou finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Zachary Bauchou
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 510

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.7800
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Zachary Bauchou finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:04:59Z

Reasoning: If Bauchou finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 20. Finishing top 20 does not imply finishing top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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