Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-STL
Will St. Louis Blues win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: St. Louis Blues
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 116482
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the St. Louis Blues win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLCENTRAL-26-STL
Will St. Louis Blues win the NHL Central Division?
Series: KXNHLCENTRAL
Entity: St. Louis Blues
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 6487
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the St. Louis Blues win the 2025-2026 NHL Central Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:04:00Z
Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup does not require winning the Central Division — a team can win the Cup as a wild card or division runner-up. And winning the Central Division does not mean winning the Cup. No logical implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-18.27%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0100
Days to maturity:
18
Hurdle yield:
4.19%
Excess yield:
-22.46%
BELOW HURDLE