Pair #214

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-STL

Will St. Louis Blues win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: St. Louis Blues
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 116482

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If the St. Louis Blues win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLCENTRAL-26-STL

Will St. Louis Blues win the NHL Central Division?

Series: KXNHLCENTRAL
Entity: St. Louis Blues
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 6487

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If the St. Louis Blues win the 2025-2026 NHL Central Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:04:00Z

Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup does not require winning the Central Division — a team can win the Cup as a wild card or division runner-up. And winning the Central Division does not mean winning the Cup. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -18.27% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -22.46% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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