Pair #2133

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-DCHA

Valspar Championship: Will Davis Chatfield finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Davis Chatfield
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 562

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Davis Chatfield finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-DCHA

Valspar Championship: Will Davis Chatfield finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Davis Chatfield
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7885

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Davis Chatfield finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:04:59Z

Reasoning: If Chatfield finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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