Pair #2132

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-DCHA

Valspar Championship: Will Davis Chatfield finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Davis Chatfield
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7885

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Davis Chatfield finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-DCHA

Valspar Championship: Will Davis Chatfield make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Davis Chatfield
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 689

YES ask: 0.8600
NO ask: 0.2400
Last: 0.7900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Davis Chatfield makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:04:59Z

Reasoning: If Chatfield finishes top 20, he must have made the cut to play the final rounds. However, making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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