Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-STL
Will St. Louis Blues win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: St. Louis Blues
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 116482
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the St. Louis Blues win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLWEST-26-STL
Western Conference Finals Winner?
Series: KXNHLWEST
Entity: St. Louis Blues
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 29933
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If St. Louis Blues wins the Western Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:04:00Z
Reasoning: To win the Stanley Cup Finals, the Blues must come from the Western Conference and win the Western Conference Finals. Winning the Cup necessitates winning the Western Conference Finals. The reverse is not true — winning the West Finals means appearing in the Cup Finals but not necessarily winning.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-11.06%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0100
Days to maturity:
31
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
-15.27%
BELOW HURDLE