Pair #2129

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-ATOS

Will Alejandro Tosti win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11372

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alejandro Tosti wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-ATOS

Valspar Championship: Will Alejandro Tosti finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1379

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alejandro Tosti finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:04:40Z

Reasoning: Winning means finishing 1st, which is within top 5. A top-5 finish does not imply a win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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