Pair #2119

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-KROY

Valspar Championship: Will Kevin Roy finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Kevin Roy
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12008

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Kevin Roy finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-KROY

Valspar Championship: Will Kevin Roy make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Kevin Roy
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 714

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.5300
Last: 0.5600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Kevin Roy makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:04:24Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 requires having made the cut — you cannot finish in the top 20 overall without surviving the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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