Pair #2116

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-STHE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5897

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VAC26-STHE

Will Sahith Theegala lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 550

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:04:24Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major. Leading after Round 2 of the Valspar has no logical connection to winning a major. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -4.28% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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