Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR2LEAD-VAC26-STHE
Will Sahith Theegala lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valspar Championship?
Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 550
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Sahith Theegala is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VAC26-STHE
Valspar Championship: Will Sahith Theegala finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 45434
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Sahith Theegala finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:04:24Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 does not guarantee a top 20 finish, and finishing top 20 does not require leading after Round 2. These are independent events.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0200
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A