Pair #2105

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-VWHA

Valspar Championship: Will Vince Whaley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Vince Whaley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2026

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Vince Whaley finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-VWHA

Valspar Championship: Will Vince Whaley finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Vince Whaley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 20324

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Vince Whaley finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:04:05Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 means finishing within top 20. Top 20 does not imply top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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