Pair #2089

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-JSUB

Valspar Championship: Will Jackson Suber make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Jackson Suber
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1606

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jackson Suber makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-JSUB

Valspar Championship: Will Jackson Suber finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jackson Suber
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 277

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jackson Suber finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:03:40Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish, and finishing top 10 (while it implies making the cut) is the reverse direction — top 10 implies making the cut, but that is B implying A, not a standard forward implication. Actually: top 10 finish does imply making the cut, so B→A holds, but A does not imply B. However the question asks for the implication direction: KXPGATOP10 (B) → KXPGAMAKECUT (A). Let me re-evaluate.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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