Pair #2082

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-TKIM

Valspar Championship: Will Tom Kim finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7247

YES ask: 0.4300
NO ask: 0.6200
Last: 0.4300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-TKIM

Valspar Championship: Will Tom Kim make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 250

YES ask: 0.8800
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.6700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:03:22Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 requires playing all four rounds, which means the player necessarily made the cut. However, making the cut does not imply finishing top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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