Pair #2072

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VAC26-TKIM

Will Tom Kim lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2628

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-TKIM

Valspar Championship: Will Tom Kim finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6996

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:03:22Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 overall does not require leading after Round 2, and leading after Round 2 does not guarantee a top 5 finish. These are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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