Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP20-VAC26-TKIM
Valspar Championship: Will Tom Kim finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3791
YES ask: 0.7300
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tom Kim finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-TKIM
Valspar Championship: Will Tom Kim make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 250
YES ask: 0.8800
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.6700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tom Kim makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:03:03Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 20 requires completing the full tournament, which requires making the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top-20 finish.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.1800
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A