Pair #2071

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-TKIM

Valspar Championship: Will Tom Kim finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3791

YES ask: 0.7300
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-TKIM

Valspar Championship: Will Tom Kim make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 250

YES ask: 0.8800
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.6700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:03:03Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 requires completing the full tournament, which requires making the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top-20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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