Pair #2068

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-SJAE

Valspar Championship: Will Stephan Jaeger finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3664

YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 0.7400
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stephan Jaeger finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-SJAE

Valspar Championship: Will Stephan Jaeger make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 653

YES ask: 0.7200
NO ask: 0.3800
Last: 0.6600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stephan Jaeger makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:03:03Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 requires completing the tournament, which requires making the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top-20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue