Pair #2064

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VAC26-SIM

Will Sungjae Im lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1447

YES ask: 0.3600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.3600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sungjae Im is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-SIM

Valspar Championship: Will Sungjae Im make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7815

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0200
Last: 0.8100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sungjae Im makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:03:03Z

Reasoning: If Sungjae Im leads after Round 2, he must have made the cut (the cut is determined after Round 2, and the leader necessarily makes it). The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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