Pair #2062

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SJIM

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1107

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VAC26-SIM

Will Sungjae Im lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6924

YES ask: 0.3900
NO ask: 0.6900
Last: 0.3900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:03:03Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major, so leading its Round 3 has no logical connection to winning a PGA Tour major. Neither direction implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -42.27% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3800
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -46.55% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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