Pair #2059

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-KVIL

Valspar Championship: Will Karl Vilips finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Karl Vilips
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5339

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Karl Vilips finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-KVIL

Valspar Championship: Will Karl Vilips finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Karl Vilips
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4920

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Karl Vilips finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:02:22Z

Reasoning: If Karl Vilips finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 20 (top 5 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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