Pair #2058

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VAC26-LHOD

Will Lee Hodges lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Lee Hodges
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 442

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Lee Hodges is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-LHOD

Valspar Championship: Will Lee Hodges make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Lee Hodges
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 460

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.5500
Last: 0.5400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Lee Hodges makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:02:22Z

Reasoning: If Lee Hodges leads at the end of Round 2, he has completed Round 2 and therefore necessarily makes the cut (the cut is determined after Round 2). The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not imply leading.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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