Pair #2057

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VAC26-LHOD

Will Lee Hodges lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Lee Hodges
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 442

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Lee Hodges is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-LHOD

Will Lee Hodges win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Lee Hodges
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 54986

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Lee Hodges wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:02:22Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament does not require leading after Round 2 (a player can win from behind), and leading after Round 2 does not guarantee winning. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue