Pair #2056

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VAC26-LHOD

Will Lee Hodges lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Lee Hodges
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 442

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Lee Hodges is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-LHOD

Valspar Championship: Will Lee Hodges finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Lee Hodges
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 19026

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Lee Hodges finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:02:22Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 does not imply leading after Round 2, and leading after Round 2 does not imply finishing top 20. These are independent outcomes with no logical necessity between them.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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