Pair #2055

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-CRAM

Valspar Championship: Will Chad Ramey make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Chad Ramey
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1024

YES ask: 0.6700
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.6700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chad Ramey makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-CRAM

Valspar Championship: Will Chad Ramey finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Chad Ramey
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3176

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chad Ramey finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:02:22Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not imply finishing top 10, and finishing top 10 does not imply making the cut in the directional sense needed — actually finishing top 10 does imply making the cut, but the ticker for make cut is Event A here. Top 10 (Event B) implies make cut (Event A), but since the question is about which direction, finishing top 10 necessarily means making the cut. However, making the cut does not imply top 10. So Event B implies Event A.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.4400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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