Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-VAC26-GWOO
Valspar Championship: Will Gary Woodland finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Gary Woodland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4465
YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Gary Woodland finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VAC26-GWOO
Valspar Championship: Will Gary Woodland finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Gary Woodland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 13184
YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Gary Woodland finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:02:22Z
Reasoning: If Gary Woodland finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20 as well (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 10.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.3600
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A