Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP5-VAC26-GWOO
Valspar Championship: Will Gary Woodland finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Gary Woodland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8668
YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Gary Woodland finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VAC26-GWOO
Valspar Championship: Will Gary Woodland finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Gary Woodland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 13184
YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Gary Woodland finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:02:01Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 5 (including ties) necessarily means finishing top 20 (including ties). The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 5.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.5200
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A