Pair #2045

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLRICHARD-26-NKUC

Who will win Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy?

Series: KXNHLRICHARD
Entity: Nikita Kucherov
Expiration: 2026-06-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 466

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nikita Kucherov wins the NHL Maurice "Rocket" Richard Award in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLROSS-26-NKUC

Who will win Art Ross Trophy?

Series: KXNHLROSS
Entity: Nikita Kucherov
Expiration: 2026-06-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 49319

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nikita Kucherov wins the NHL Art Ross Trophy in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:02:01Z

Reasoning: The Richard Trophy is awarded to the leading goal scorer while the Art Ross Trophy is awarded to the leading points scorer. A player can lead in goals without leading in points (e.g., if others have more assists), and vice versa. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -11.40% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 30
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -15.62% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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