Pair #2043

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOUR-LIGSA26-CSMI

Will Cameron Smith win the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVTOUR
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 147273

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Smith wins the LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXLIVTOP10-LIGSA26-CSMI

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Cameron Smith finish top 10?

Series: KXLIVTOP10
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10576

YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.5200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Smith finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-20T08:02:01Z

Reasoning: Winning the LIV Golf South Africa means finishing 1st, which is necessarily within the top 10. The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not mean winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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